The Big Picture
The Federal Reserve took a big swing last week, chopping interest rates by a half point instead of the quarter point that was expected. This was probably because inflation continues to moderate, currently at 2.5% annually, and moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target rate.
While job growth is slowing, the overall economic outlook continues to be steady, with August sales up 2% over the previous year. Clothing and accessory stores did particularly well, showing a 2.3% upswing. This is encouraging news as we head further in the fall, even though credit card debt is rising, and the election is closing in.
Early Fall Sales
Among our client stores, both menswear and women’s wear reported a 3% increase in August over last year.
In men’s, Clothing categories soared by 9%, as jackets continued to dominate. Sport Coats were up 8%, and Soft Coats flew off the racks, up 103% over last year. Suits made a slight recovery, increasing by 1%.
In women’s, Special Order made a 4% gain, and RTW came in flat, but is tracking with the overall 1% growth in women’s so far this year. Dresses continued to falter, down 8%, but Skirts are doing well, up 26% so far this year.
Warming Trends
The clear trend in both men’s and women’s is sweaters. They got off to a nice start in August and we anticipate that they will continue to do well as the temperatures drop. Make sure you have your re-orders in early because the best sellers will go quickly.
So far, consumers appear unaffected by election uncertainty, so we could have a strong fall season. Of course, keep tracking your on-orders and your fundamentals. We don’t want to get distracted and miss opportunities.
Blacks’ Bottom Line
Given how well sweaters and knits are performing already, make sure you have the right inventory in stock to pounce on this trend.
