The Big Picture

Inflation remains a concern, with annual inflation reaching 4.2% last month, the highest level in three years. But there are some encouraging signs: gas prices are beginning to ease, conversations around global conflicts are shifting, and consumers are feeling better about their financial picture.

With the stock market recently hitting near all-time highs, many shoppers are looking at their 401(k)s and feeling more confident about spending. 

That confidence is showing up in retail. According to the National Retail Federation, core retail sales increased to 7% year-over-year in May.

May Sales: Spring Momentum Continues

For the second consecutive month, our client stores delivered double-digit growth, up 12% overall.
The big takeaway? The spring assortment landed exactly where customers wanted to shop.

Menswear was the standout performer, jumping 14%.

The biggest gains came from Clothing categories, which increased 16%, showing that customers were ready to invest in the pieces that refresh their wardrobes.
Sportswear was not far behind, posting an 11% gain.

Women’s also had an excellent month, up 9% overall.

Dresses were flat, but skirts surged 16%. This is a strong reminder that opportunities can appear quickly when trends align with the right inventory.
The question is: did you have enough of the winners?

Spring’27: Hone Your Buy
June sales are continuing to hold strong, and our planning systems are starting to increase inventory projections based on the current sales trend.

This is the moment to ask: Are you buying enough of what is working?

Start by looking at your classes that are outperforming planned sales. If categories are consistently beating expectations, reassess whether your inventory position is strong enough, especially heading into Spring ’27 planning.

It’s also time to assess where you need to be getting more granular in your buy, both at the category and vendor level.

Within categories, do you need to be breaking out the buy in terms of priceline, style, or fabrication?

From the vendor perspective, which vendors are growing to the point where they should have their own open-to-buy? 

Over the last several years the market has grown significantly. The way you planned in 2022 is not the same way you should be planning in 2027.


Blacks’ Bottom Line
The best way to take advantage of strong momentum while staying prepared for uncertainty is to move from broad buying decisions to more targeted ones.