The Big Picture
Earlier this month JPMorgan Chase officially proclaimed that the economy has made a soft landing, as inflation continues to lower and job growth is strong. UBS went even further, saying that we could see an economic boom comparable to the Roaring ‘20s.
The economy’s underlying strength was reflected in September’s retail sales figures, which were up 0.4% overall, outstripping expectations. However, most of the spending was discretionary, as consumers visited bars and restaurants.
September Trends
In our client stores, the fall season got off to a good start: menswear was up by 2%, and women’s wear posted 3% growth.
In men’s, Clothing categories finally slowed, down 2% overall. This was mostly due to a decline in Suit sales, which dropped 5% compared to last year. Even Sport Coats started to slow, showing a 1% dip.
Thankfully, Sportswear took up the slack, improving by 3%, with strength in Knitwear and Casual Pants. This shows that men are finally starting to restock their casual wardrobes.
In women’s, RTW was down 1% overall, but Special Orders soared, up 56%, and Activewear made a 2% gain after being flat in recent months.
We are still waiting for women to buy holiday dresses. So far, this category is still suffering, with overall dress sales down 7%.
Holiday Predictions
Business has been up all year, so there’s no reason to think we won’t have a great holiday season. If anything, consumers may be ready to spread more cheer with the economy on solid footing.
If you are seeing a slow start to Sweaters and Outerwear, we recommend that you don’t immediately turn to markdowns. We sold full-priced Outerwear into February and March last season.
One thing to keep an eye on is early Spring ’25 deliveries that are scheduled just a little too early, taking up valuable space. Talk with your vendors to make sure that you land the goods at the ideal time for you.
Blacks’ Bottom Line
We’re on track for a great holiday. Watch your timing on markdowns and deliveries to keep sales and profit on track.
