The Big Picture

The latest government data tells a cautiously optimistic story.
Third-quarter GDP came in at a strong 4.3%, well above expectations. Consumer spending was a major driver.

Holiday spending is on track to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever, underscoring just how resilient consumer demand remains.

Looking ahead, rising costs will likely pressure middle- and lower-income households. But for many of our stores, affluent shoppers should continue to fuel the sales momentum.

Holiday Sales Snapshot

Early reads suggest our client stores are positioned for modest December growth, following a strong November:

-A pparel led the way, up 6% overall

– Menswear posted a 7% gain, with Clothing categories jumping 10%, boosted by formal events and occasion dressing

– Women’s increased 5%, driven by RTW and accessories as customers refreshed their fall wardrobes

What 2025 Taught Us

As we plan for the year ahead, it’s worth reflecting on a key lesson from last spring. At the time, uncertainty around sky-high tariffs had many merchants on edge. In hindsight, it’s striking that we went on to experience one of the strongest fall seasons ever.

Early deliveries played a major role. By getting fresh product on the floor sooner, we gave customers the newness they were looking for and successfully extended the selling season.

Your New Year To-Do List

As you head into the new year, keep these priorities front and center:

– Clear older inventory quickly. Make your first markdown meaningful to accelerate sell-through.

– Be strategic with delivery timing. Moving up deliveries can work — but only if weather conditions support selling seasonal goods.

– Don’t overreact to short-term slowdowns. Stick to your plan and work closely with your analyst to adjust thoughtfully as conditions change.

Higher costs will remain a challenge, particularly for stores sourcing from European vendors. Markups will need to rise, but proceed with caution. Avoid pushing products into entirely new price tiers — customers are sensitive to being pulled out of their mental comfort zones.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
We don’t have a crystal ball, but with the right merchandise strategies and the discipline to execute them, we’re optimistic that 2026 could be another great year for retail.