The Big Picture

Inflation cooled last month, and the job market picked up steam. But there’s a catch: 2025 job growth was revised sharply downward — from 584,000 new jobs to just 181,000.

Meanwhile, 2025 GDP growth came in lower than expected, at 1.4%. Economist blamed some of this on the prolonged government shut down.

News Friday that the Supreme Court knocked down reciprocal tariffs seems positive, but we are again in a time of uncertainty, which could make it even harder for businesses to plan their budgets.

In short: the headlines look cautious. But inside independent stores? The story is different.

January Sales: Up In a Slump Month

U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% in January (well below the 0.2% expected), yet among our client stores, January sales were up 3% overall.

— Menswear, Clothing categories: +4%
— Suits: +5%
— Sport coats: +5%

The fact that these higher-ticket items performed well tells us something important: shoppers are still spending — they’re just looking for value in a markdown month.

— Women’s RTW: +5%

— Dresses: -4%

Though dresses dipped 4%, this came after a strong holiday run. And winter weather delivered exactly what it should — a boost in cold-weather outerwear and growth in sweaters for both men and women.

So far, we’re not seeing a demand problem. And although early February numbers were sluggish, sales have picked up in the second half of the month.

Spring Setup: A Window to Win

You’re heading into spring against soft numbers from last year due to tariff uncertainty. That gives you a real opportunity to outperform. If demand stays steady, this could be a strong season.

With momentum on your side:

— Protect your initial markup (IMU). Don’t give away margin unnecessarily.

— Watch weeks of stock closely. If inventory builds too quickly, act early with a decisive first markdown.

— Do not be afraid of landing SP’26 goods a little early. Remember what happened last summer: early landings allowed us to identify key items, and buy back into them.

— Clear winter cleanly. Lingering cold-weather inventory will only slow your spring flow.

Blacks’ Bottom Line

Spring sales should be strong. Stay proactive – land early if you can, and monitor key data such as IMUs.