The Big Picture: Warning Signs
Sure, the stock market may have shaken off the tariff noise for now—but don’t let that fool you into thinking everything’s smooth sailing. Behind the scenes, there are still some flashing warning signs.
Earlier this month, Moody’s sent a strong signal by downgrading the U.S.’s last remaining triple-A credit rating to Aa1, pointing to ballooning deficits and stubborn inflation. Yes, job growth came in hot and beat expectations in April, but the full impact of rising tariffs hasn’t hit yet—and it’s keeping economists (and retailers) on edge.
Retail sales tell a similar story. April saw a mere 0.1% uptick, a sharp cooldown from the 1.7% growth we saw in March.
April Sales: A Mixed Bag
For our apparel clients, April wasn’t all gloom—but it certainly wasn’t boom either. Overall, sales dipped 1%, but the picture is more nuanced when you zoom in.
Menswear Recap:
Sportswear led the charge with an 8% gain, driven by a nearly 20% spike in both knits and sweaters. Think vibrant-colored cottons and cotton-linen blends—summer-ready and selling strong.
Soft coats made a major comeback, surging 44%. Their easygoing versatility is clearly resonating.
Overall, Men’s Clothing ticked up 1%, with seasonal events like spring/summer weddings giving formalwear a boost.
Women’s Update:
Dresses were down 2% overall, but it was far from a universal drop. Some locations saw dress sales soar—proof that when the right product hits the floor, it flies.
If your store was one of the winners, now’s the time to reorder, not hesitate. This category could shine again in fall and holiday.
Looking Ahead: Fall Strategy in a Shifting Economy
We’re heading into fall with plenty of uncertainty. Inflation, tariffs, consumer jitters—it’s all in the mix. So yes, caution is wise. But don’t slam the brakes.
Make sure your fall orders are measured and strategic. If you’re not truly overstocked, think twice before making drastic cuts. Instead:
-Keep in close contact with vendors.
-Watch your 60-day sales trends like a hawk.
-Stay agile and ready to pivot as new data rolls in.
Blacks’ Bottom Line: Eyes on Events
Even with cautious spending, there’s strong demand tied to life’s big moments—vacations, weddings, graduations, and celebrations. These occasions are golden opportunities.
-Now’s the time to:
-Reach out to your top clients.
-Book private shopping appointments.
-Roll out the red carpet and make every shopper feel like a VIP.
If you plan ahead and merchandise wisely, you can thrive—even in a shaky economy.
