The Big Picture
February’s jobs report came in higher than expected, adding another 275,000 jobs to the economy, and leading some to speculate that the Fed could consider cutting interest rates in June.
However, February’s inflation numbers also exceeded expectations, up 3.2% over the previous 12 months, indicating that we are still in recovery mode. It may take a while to get prices under control, especially with a strong labor market.
The Commerce Department said overall retail sales ticked up 0.6% in February, after a 1.1% drop in sales in January as cold temperatures put a freeze on shopping across much of the nation. This fits in with the slow start to the year that we predicted, but sales are already starting to ramp up.
February Sales
Women’s wear saw a marked increase last month, up 16%, as ladies gravitated to new spring goods. Even Dresses started to recover, although they were down 4% from last February.
It looks like some of the weak categories we saw in 2023 are indeed coming back, which should add up to a better year for women’s wear.
Menswear continued its steady sales, posting a 7% gain, with Clothing categories soaring 14% and Sportswear up 6%.
It appears that the economy is keeping consumers confident. If it wasn’t an election year we could do phenomenal business, but we have to keep one eye toward that uncertainty.
Tracking Your Turn Rates
Check your August ending inventory for the season because it should be lower than last year. We are still in the process of slowly selling down some extra inventory to stay lean and nimble as we head into the fall season.
That said, pay attention to which deliveries you are getting a good turn rate on now. If you have some open-to-buy over the next 60 days keep funding those fast-moving categories to make the most of this strong sales momentum.
Blacks’ Bottom Line
Now is the time to be firing on all cylinders as we take advantage of the demand for new spring goods. This will give you a cushion if we see a slowdown this fall.
