Clothing and accessories posted a 1.7% gain year-over-year, while sporting goods (which are important to some of our outdoor retailers) saw a 1.9% increase.

The same figures seasonally adjusted month-over-month still came out positive, but showed much more subtle gains.

The continued growth bodes well for the summer season, according to NRF President Matthew Shay.

However, Blacks Retail Founder and Senior Consultant Steve Pruitt warns that while 22 months of consecutive growth is fantastic for retailers, it also means that we are coming to the end of a natural retail cycle and we could be facing a small downturn after the fall season.

“Make the most of what should be a very positive fall season, but plan conservatively as we head toward the spring of next year,” Pruitt says.

The results of the “cross shopping” poll of 100,000 anonymous cardholders came as a bit of a shock, but the percentages were clear. Where luxury stores garnered just 2% of the aggregate MasterCard transactions in the survey, discount stores (not including wholesale clubs) had twice that amount, with 4% of the total transactions.

With this data comes a new marketing question: do luxury stores need to worry about competition at the lower end?

We sat down with Steve Pruitt, CEO and senior analyst with Blacks Retail, to get his opinion on the shift:

“It’s not a concern right now, because better priced stores are growing at a higher volume” he said. “Applying this data to true luxury stores is highly suspect, but it does to apply to middle-of-the-road stores like Macy’s. The Macy’s customer is more likely to trade down to the Walmart’s and Target’s of the world; there is pressure on the middle.”

However, Pruitt pointed out that luxury retailers are making more margin than ever before and the trend associated with the better stores is positive.

“In fact, The Saks, the Barney’s, and Neiman Marcus’s of the world are seeing huge gains in their business, and they have every month for some time. This gain in business translates to our privately-owned luxury clients also. Their business has been up 8-10% month-to-month.”

Blacks Founder Steve Pruitt

Mismanaging this relationship will prevent you from reaching long-term goals, as you’ll find that markdowns will be taken more frequently, and you margins will suffer as a result.

We sat down with Steve Pruitt, CEO and Senior Analyst of Blacks Retail, to discuss these relationships, and why it’s just as important to use planning services during the good times, as it is when a business is just maintaining, or trying to recover:

With strong gains over the holiday season, and unseasonably warm temperatures boosting spring sales, business seems to be on an upswing. Is this positive trend holding?

Steve: Business is continuing to do well so far, and I think the trend should hold into the summer.

Do you think it’s as crucial to use outside services when business is good, as when business is doing poorly?

Steve: Absolutely, and if you’re a smart businessperson with the available capital, you should use planning services. Expert planning ensures maximum performance regardless of sales, and allows you to exploit any positive trends within your category structure, in preparation for the slower seasons.

If you hope to grow your business to a higher standard of profitability, inventory management is critical during these times.

What aspects of the business can benefit the most by using outside planning during the good times?

Steve: It’s all about maximizing your opportunity and staying within strong sales cycles as long as possible, and while that may seem obvious, creating and executing a plan to do so is a comprehensive process.

In your experience, what do businesses risk when sell-through is consistent that can be prevented by using outside services?

Steve: Well, the most obvious would be failing to capitalize on trends within the business, but I’ve also found that inventory levels become mismanaged, and this trickles down into a new set of problems; long-term goals become more difficult to execute.

It’s easy to get overconfident when sell-through is consistent, but I believe that performance needs to be managed whether business is good or bad.

 Have you seen any examples of this with new or existing clients?

Steve: Absolutely, I find examples of this scenario frequently, where sales are growing at a 5% rate, while inventory levels are growing at a rate of 7%; your sell-through can be misleading. In a situation like this you begin to lose performance. All of a sudden your inventory levels are outpacing your sales, even though you’re selling at a sound rate, but ultimately you’re going to take a huge margin hit. You’re eventually going to have to liquidate some of your inventory, which will negate your sales profits to some degree.

We see this phenomenon happen to a lesser degree with some of our clients, and they’re the ones keeping track of their sales-to-inventory ratios on a monthly basis – now imagine if you’re a company that doesn’t manage these relationships.

The bottom line is that whether times are good or bad you need to stay focused on improving your performance, or eventually lose out to the competition.

Now, all eyes are on the Fed to see if they will leave interest rates unchanged following a two-day policy meeting. Many analysts predict that the Fed will choose to remain on the sidelines, as the economy continues to recover at its own speed.

If recent sales are any indication, the analysts are right to preach non-intervention– consumers are feeling confident enough to make this spring a very positive season for retailers.

March Surprise
After an unusually strong  February, consumers continue to pull out our wallets last month. Menswear was up 6% in March over the previous year, while women’s wear came in 8% higher, according to Blacks’ exclusive trends.

Clothing continues to drive menswwear, with suits posting a 22% gain and neckwear coming in 17% higher. Jackets also performed incredibly well showing a 31% increase over last year. After several years of wearing the same clothing, men are finally starting to replace older styles and spruce up their wardrobes.

In women’s wear, it was all about dresses, which posted a 24% gain while ready-to-wear came in flat. Special order also peaked, showing a 37% gain.

(For more in-depth trends, see our Trends-by-Class page.)

 Planning Ahead
Although the spring cycle has been strong, we expect business to drop off at the end of May and beginning of June, as we head into the slower summer months. Unless your sell-through rate has been very high, get ready to mark down when the big-box retailers go on sale.

Most merchants are running higher inventories than last year so you will have to put some effort into clearing spring goods before the early fall merchandise lands.

We have had strong sales over the last few years and we predict the cycle to wind down, so continue to watch your inventory levels. (Remember, the year after a Presidential election generally sees slower retail sales.)

In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if the rate of growth from August to November of this year is two-thirds of the February-to-May rate. This doesn’t mean that business will be “bad” per se, but it does mean that you have to keep a close eye on your trends and be relentless with your planning.

Blacks Bottom Line:
The current retail cycle is slowing down so keep a close eye on your inventory levels and be prepared to mark down when necessary.

If that doesn’t get you “pinterested” consider that same-store traffic from Pinterest to five specialty apparel retailers rose 389% from July to December of last year, according to Monetate Platform-wide Analytics.

Why? Apparently, it’s all about the pictures that customers see and share on Pinterest that makes them more emotionally attached to products than they would be otherwise.

This is this how it works–Pinterest users “pin” images to online pinboards that express their personal preferences. For instance, a user may have a “my style” pinboard where they pin pictures of shoes, clothing, and handbags that they see on the web or on other users’ Pinterest pages. These images link back to the e-commerce sites where the images are hosted. Since they see these pinboards as an expression of themselves, they are more likely to purchase the products featured on them then they would be on other social networking sites.

As an e-retailer, you can take advantage of the success of Pinterest by opening an account and creating different boards that showcase your products and tell a story to your target audience. Then encourage pinning on your boards to create a community feel.

Here are a few other tips for leveraging Pinterest to drive higher traffic to your site:

• Hire a photographer or a great graphic designer to help showcase your products
• Add a Pinterest icon to your e-commerce site to encourage pinning
• Add a Pinterest share tab to your great product images
• Create custom landing pages for your site that feature specific product groupings targeting a particular group of Pinterest users
• Test different boards and content and keep track of the results

Since this kind of sharing and traffic generation is relatively new, you may have to play around with different ideas and always track your success. The best way to start is by signing up for an account and learning how the community uses the site, so you can better understand potential customers.

Experts pointed to warmer weather and growing consumer confidence as reasons behind the increase.

The February jump also led analysts to increase their GDP estimates for the first quarter, up from 2% to 2.5%.

Consumers seem to be shaking off higher gasoline prices as the job and housing markets continue to improve.

Here at Blacks, we expect spring sales to continue to be strong, until the cyclical summer slowdown.  Retailers should make the most of their spring promotions and then focus on fall.

Furthermore, in the study conducted by StellaService, five big retailers, including J. Crew and RadioShack, failed to respond to questions within 48 hours of them being posted.

This is bad news for merchants considering that more and more consumers are turning to social media when they have issues with a product or service. In fact,  27% of U.S. consumers sought help through online communities last year, according to Forrester Research.

The lesson here is that if you have a Facebook page you have to put the time and effort into monitoring comments and answering questions or else you lose credibility.

Few other details have been given other than the fact that the new chain will be a “luxury version” of the H&M we know.

The announcement comes as the company’s margins are down, due to higher purchasing costs, since the company is keeping with its policy of not passing on price rises to customers.

In addition to opening a new chain of stores, H&M has also announced it will expand its current product categories, and has hired extra staff in its buying and production offices.

It will be interesting to see how the retailer’s new concepts develop in the current economic climate.

“As long as H&M’s higher-price strategy comes with better quality products and innovative designs, it could be a smart move,” said Blacks Retail Founder and Senior Consultant Steve Pruitt.

February Boom
After the strong holiday season, we expected sales to be rather flat in January and February of this year, but consumers showed that they are more than willing to spend if the products and prices are right.

Menswear was up 11% over last year, with strong gains coming from clothing categories such as suits, sports coats, and neckwear, as well as jackets and knits.

Meanwhile, women’s wear showed a 3% gain, led by special order and ready-to-wear. Earlier than expected warm weather helped drive sales, especially products such as short-sleeved knits. Dresses are still down, mainly because women’s wardrobes are filled with dress options. However, skirts continue to do well.

(For more in-depth trending information, check out our Trends by Class page.)

While we don’t expect March to be as strong as February, since some of that business is now off the table, it should be a decent month.

Spring Finish
We expect April to show slightly stronger gains, especially since we have an early Easter this year, which usually gets consumers spending earlier and more often. In fact, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects Easter sales to grow 11% over last year, with some of those gains coming from apparel.

The trick for ending the spring season on a positive note is to make sure that you have mid-priced “buy now, wear now” goods in stock for May and June so your floor looks fresh and consumers are motivated buy.

Blacks Bottom Line
Focus on your balance of deliveries for the season and be prepared to purchase more “buy now, wear goods” in May and early June to drive late-season sales.

So, your marketing strategy must shift from one that focuses solely on products, to one that includes a person-centric approach. This focus is on the nuances of consumers’ buying habits, rather than just the products.

We’ve spotlighted six of the more typical types of online shoppers, and analyzed their approach towards shopping online. Each one of these types of consumers has probably visited your e-store at one point or another, and may or may not have purchased goods through it, based on their shopping behavior.

We sat down with Steve Pruitt, CEO and senior analyst of Blacks Retail, and Tom Jones, an analyst with Blacks Retail specializing in the outdoor industry, to discuss how retailers should target these different types of online shoppers.

1) The Premium Shopper

These types of shoppers are always on the lookout for premium name brands, or the latest trend-setting apparel. So long as they’re convinced that they’re investing in hip apparel, they’re generally willing to spend a good deal of money on high-end goods.

Potential problems: A common mistake with online operations is an overly complicated and convoluted website. While high-end, trend setting, and name brand goods are available, it may be hard for the consumer to find them; it becomes a problem of access.

How to close

Steve Pruitt: Having the product in stock, in their size, and in their preferred color is crucial; availability is the biggest issue with premium shoppers. Also, if this shopper is on the fence about making a large purchase, include a smaller item for free or at a low cost, and you’ll find an increase in the average order value in the long run.

Tom Jones: These types of shoppers know what they want, and just want to complete the order; they’re not the type that invests time into social media. Know that they’re willing to spend, so long as your goods are in the right stock, size, and color, as Steve mentioned.

2) The Methodical Shopper

The methodical shopper is looking for something specific. They’re not about to spend money on a product that doesn’t meet their expectations, or their budget. They will often use site navigation to narrow down their options, and from there will often price compare other e-commerce sites.

Potential problems: If a website lacks a navigational tool that allows the consumer to narrow their search, then you put yourself at a great disadvantage with this potential business. Also, these types of shoppers see right through cheap and transparent marketing.

How to close

Tom Jones: Based on our client base, outdoor customers do seem to use online shopping to compare prices in significant numbers. Loyalty to any given retailer is sacrificed for best pricing, and discount size (from suggested retail) correlates directly with volume of business. But manufacturers in the outdoor world enforce minimum advertised price (MAP) policies, so it is difficult for retailers to drop below retail online, as any published price is considered the advertised price. (This differs from in-store pricing, which is not covered by MAP policies.)

Retailers who actively shop for merchandise that is discounted, for instance due to color or style changes, are not subject to MAP policies for that merchandise and may use it to drive traffic to a website. Once customers have landed on a site, savvy retailers can market other products to them at full price.

Steve Pruitt: Recognize that these types of customers will probably need assistance with finding a specific product, so offer the appropriate tools to narrow their search, and make them user friendly. Offer a clear and concise help menu to aid them with any questions they might have. Also, rather than making general product offers, make suggestions based on their previous buying history.

3) The Impatient Shopper:

These shoppers are the opposite of the methodical type, and are less likely to browse the ins and outs of your website. If they don’t find what they’re looking for immediately, then they’re likely move onto a different website.

Potential problems: Know that these types of shoppers don’t generally shop out of the enjoyment of process; they want to buy, and be done with it. Don’t make your website overly complicated to navigate, and try to word any special offers as simply as possible.

How to close

Steve Pruitt: Easy and convenient is the name of the game. Create a bold offer to grab their attention and maximize conversions. To prevent the customer from leaving and browsing a different website, present an offer combined with what they were browsing to try and win them back. Base the offer on their buying history, or the history of similar shoppers.

Tom Jones: Website policies can make the difference in this consumer’s buying decisions. Free shipping above certain minimum purchases, such as $50, is essentially mandatory for a site to be competitive. Other ways to increase perceived value include no-questions-asked, unlimited return policies, and free return shipping. However, such policies may have a prohibitively high impact on margin for smaller retailers.

4) The Loyal Shopper

Consider this type of shopper as your client base, or the repeat customer. They’ll often browse your web store before others, similarly to shoppers who frequently return to your brick-and-mortar store.

Potential problems: Because of the loyalty this shopper has invested in your goods, one or two bad experiences can turn them away, and potentially ruin your reputation. They want their loyalty recognized, and will resent your business model if their business goes without recognition.

How to close

Steve Pruitt: With this type of customer, it’s not so much a case of convincing them to buy initially, but rather keeping them as a loyal customer, or maintaining a long-term investment. To keep them in your good graces, offer a rewards program, or loyalty club, which accrues points based on their buying history. Remind them with every purchase the amount of points they have, and how many more they’ll need for that “special offer.” A rewards program gives them that extra incentive to remain a loyal customer.

5) The Distracted Shopper

These types aren’t as familiar with the process of shopping online, so they are less likely to follow through with their purchase. They’ll often browse other sites while shopping, and are generally wary of shopping online.

Potential problems: Because they’re not familiar with the process, they fail to see the incentive of shopping online. A brick-and-mortar shopping experience is a sure bet, and a familiar process in their eyes, and they consider e-commerce a low priority.

How to close

Steve Pruitt: Because these types fail to see the incentive of online shopping, you need to make discounting and special offers abundantly clear to them, particularly during the time they’re browsing your store. Once they have an item in their shopping cart, make them aware that their next item will be discounted; create an incentive for them to continue shopping.

6) The Educated Shopper:

The educated shopper is savvy, and knows how to manipulate social media and other tools to get the most “bang” for their buck. They research everything about specific products, from weight and materials to intended use and online reviews. Most importantly, they want to know what other people think about the product. These types are especially prevalent in the outdoor business.

Potential problems: Because these types of customers are price sensitive based on their research, you need to make sure your social media presence is overwhelmingly positive. Don’t let a couple of bad reviews diminish your sales. Take the time to answer questions on message boards and other social media sites. Do not risk false information preventing a sale.

How to close

Tom Jones: Social-media marketing appears to be the key to attracting these customers. Educated shoppers, like outdoor shoppers, appreciate a relationship with a “cool” shop that goes far beyond shopping to include topical online discussions and frequent updates about fashion news, in-store presentations, new product arrivals, and so on. But retailers still face a big challenge in converting followers and “likers” of their social media into paying customers.